NVIDIA 5-Year "Pentagon Put" Stress-Tester

Simulate how U.S. Defense, Nuclear Labs, and Sovereign AI orders create a valuation floor during the 2028–2029 Bubble Burst Hazard Window.

Simulation Mode

Consensus Base Case

Prob-Weighted Tgt

$321.50

Current Baseline

$212.21

Q3 Guide: $108.0B

Year 1 Target

$275.00

+29.6% vs. Today

Year 3 Trough Floor

$165.00

-40.0% from Yr 1

Year 5 Target

$315.00

+48.4% 5-Yr Return

1. Select NVIDIA Trajectory Preset

Active Bull Bear Wt'd

2. Interactive Stress-Test Sliders

Yrs 2–3 Com. CapEx Shift: -22%

Yr 3 DoD/Sovereign Rev: $95B

Yr 3 Trough P/E (Floor): 15.0x

Year 5 Deployment P/E: 22.5x

Sim Price

$165.00

EPS & P/E

$11.00 (15.0x)

Commercial Rev

$315B

DoD / Sovereign Rev

$95B